The politics of the Islamic world will be directly affected by the Egyptian turbulence. The Islamic world now has three kinds of regime: religious rule, exemplified by Iran; western-style democracy represented by Turkey; and military rule, represented by Egypt before the unrest.

Iran and Sudan hope that religious forces, represented by the Society of Muslim Brothers, will seize power. Saudi Arabia hopes that Egypt will remain stable so that its own monarchy will not be seriously affected. Turkey hopes to see a more democratic Egypt.

Egypt is most likely to follow Turkey's development pattern, with other Islamic countries following suit. But this doesn't mean that the entire Muslim World will follow this path.

The political turmoil is likely to slow down economic development in Africa. Political crises in Egypt, Tunisia and Cote d'Ivoire mean African nations will choose political stability over economic development, especially as this year is African election year with 17 countries holding presidential elections.

The upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt took the United States and Europe by surprise. It will probably prompt them to provide financial assistance to grassroots activists to encourage them to carry out "revolutions" in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America.

But the results may be ironic. The fact that Mubarak handed power to the military implies that a "democratic revolution" doesn't necessarily bring democracy.

Zhang Chun is a research fellow and deputy dean of West Asian & African Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn

(The article was translated by Zhang MIng'ai)