Will Egyptian unrest make the world a better place?
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Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman announced on February 11 that President Hosni Mubarak was stepping down and handing power to the armed forces. It was the end of three weeks of political unrest in Egypt. But the unrest has only just started to spill over into the international arena.
To understand the likely global effects of Egypt turmoil, we need to understand its root cause. Development problems were the underlying reason for the unrest. Egypt's economy had, in fact, been performing relatively well until recently, with an average growth rate of 7 percent from 2006 to 2008. Even during the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, it managed growth of 3 percent and 5.8 percent.
But economic development did not result in higher living standards. Over the past decade, unemployment has fluctuated between 8 and 10 percent. And 90 percent of the unemployed are young people under the age of 29. They became the foot soldiers of the unrest.
Mubarak's 30 years in power was the ostensible reason for the turmoil. But Egyptian affairs were not solely decided by Mubarak. Behind him was a powerful ruling clique, in which the military occupied the leading role. And this means that neither the Muslim Brotherhood, Vice President Suleiman, nor opposition leader ElBaradei are likely to achieve a dominant role in the country. The governing clique is very powerful and no single political force is in a position to topple it.
With less than outstanding economic achievements, Egypt's international status has been in decline relative to rising powers like Iran and Turkey.
The upheavals in Egypt have drawn wide world attention due to its sensitive geopolitical situation. And the unrest will have knock-on effects.
