Senior economist Wang Tongsan of the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences (CASS) reported on October 10 that he expects the economic
growth rate for 2004 to rise slightly from last year's figure.
CASS economists are forecasting growth of 9.4 percent this year,
slowing slightly to 8.9 percent in 2005.
"If there are no major breaking events internationally, or
severe natural disasters or other big domestic issues, the
country's economy is capable of maintaining a growth rate of more
than 8 percent next year, due to the macro-control measures," said
Wang.
China's economy grew 9.6 percent year-on-year in the second
quarter of this year, slowing from 9.8 percent in the first quarter
and reflecting initial results from the government's efforts to
rein in investment.
"The overall performance of the economy was good," Wang
said.
However, he noted, some prominent problems in the economy still
remain. Energy and transportation bottlenecks, a possible rebound
in fixed asset investment and the rapid declines in money supply
and loans remain nagging issues.
Niu Li, a senior economist at the State Information Center, said
the government should also keep a close eye on inflation, as upward
pressure on prices is looming large.
"While food prices remain high, international oil prices are
rising rapidly," he noted.
However, the National Development and Reform Commission
announced on October 9 that it is predicting the rise in consumer
prices to stabilize and possibly slow in the fourth quarter.
Food prices held steady during the recent week-long National Day
holiday, it said on its official website, and the average grain
price - now at its second highest level ever -- is expected to
decline on lower international prices. Cheaper grain will pull down
costs for non-staple foods such as milk, meat and poultry.
Food prices account for about one-third of the consumer price
index, policymakers' key inflation gauge.
The CPI rose 4 percent year-on-year in the first eight months of
2004, hitting 5.3 percent in August for a seven-year high.
September figures have not yet been released.
(China.org.cn China Daily October 11, 2004)