Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which plagued many
parts of the world earlier this year, could reappear over the
winter in single cases but it is unlikely there will be another
outbreak in China, a prominent scientist said Friday.
Chinese epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan said he would not be
surprised if two or three SARS cases were reported in the coming
winter because as a virus-based disease it would hardly die out
naturally. "But it is unlikely we'll see a large-scale spread of
the disease, which we define as outbreak,'' Zhong said at a special
session on SARS at the Meetings of the Third World Academy of
Sciences (TWAS).
The SARS outbreak, which started in south China's Guangdong
Province last November, infected 5,327 people in China and
caused 349 deaths in the country.
As winter approaches, fears of a return of the highly infectious
disease have been on the rise.
Public concern was further heightened by news reports in August
that a young researcher was infected with SARS in a laboratory in
Singapore.
Zhong, who was among the first researchers to identify the
clinical existence of SARS, noted there is no need for panic as the
Singapore case was isolated and might not have actually been the
SARS virus.
He pointed out there have been no shades found in the X-ray of
the lungs of the Singapore patient, an essential factor in
diagnosing SARS cases. "He probably contracted another type of
coronaviruses, of which the SARS virus is a type, but not the SARS
virus," Zhong said.
But he insisted people still need to be highly vigilant as there
are still many unknown factors related to SARS.
Although development of drugs or vaccines against the virus is
under way in many labs worldwide and progress has been reported,
Zhong said their availability in clinical terms may be "two or
three years away at the earliest.''
While concentrating on SARS prevention, there is a need to keep
an eye on other diseases that may be as infectious and may combine
with SARS to attack public health, Zhong noted.
He was echoed by Chen Zhu, another Chinese scientist who spoke
at the session and described the SARS disease as "only a tip of the
iceberg".
Zhong suggested it would be helpful to carry out vaccinations in
large cities against influenza, a popular epidemic in winter, to
prevent the outbreak of SARS. Influenza is also caused by a type of
coronavirus and develops some symptoms similar to SARS cases, such
as high fever.
"Such measures will make great sense because it will help
doctors distinguish influenza patients from the suspected SARS
patients,'' he said. "Otherwise it would be a disaster.''
Precautionary measures have been carried out in China. The
Ministry of Health has restarted its daily public information
releases of the surveillance of SARS since late September, as it
did during the epidemic period.
Up to now, no new suspected or confirmed cases have been
reported to the ministry.
(China Daily October 18, 2003)