by Murad Abdo

ADEN, Yemen, Oct. 9 (Xinhua) -- The implementation of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is expected to provide a rare moment of respite for the Middle East. Yet, behind the relative calm lies a complex geopolitical realignment -- one that extends far beyond Gaza and reaches into the volatile waters of the Red Sea, where Yemen's Houthi group finds itself at a critical crossroads.

For months, the Houthis have positioned themselves as a force opposing Israel's aggression, launching missile and drone attacks on Israel and Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea since the Gaza conflict broke out in October 2023, in a show of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Israel has responded with heavy strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen.

The Houthis had previously pledged to suspend such operations if Israel ceased its aggression and lifted the blockade on Gaza. With the truce now in effect, Yemeni experts and political observers say the Sanaa-based group faces "a moment of strategic reckoning" that could define its future trajectory.

They believe the Houthis face a narrowing space to justify continued military operations, and may soon need to reconsider their regional posture.

Yemeni political analyst Yasin Al-Tamimi told Xinhua that the Houthis' military activities are expected to fall under the terms of the Gaza ceasefire.

"With the truce in place, Houthi operations should logically come to a halt," he said. "However, the situation remains fluid. Even if the Houthis suspend their attacks, Israel's persistent perception of them as a security threat could keep the tensions alive."

He added that "recent developments suggest that hostilities may not disappear entirely. Israel may still target the Houthis in Yemen, sustaining a cycle of tension."

He added that while the ceasefire reflects a significant diplomatic breakthrough, lasting peace will require both restraint and trust -- elements still in short supply after years of confrontation. "The possibility of continued confrontation remains," he said, "as the political and security dynamics that fueled this conflict are far from resolved."

Speaking to Xinhua, Nabil al-Bukiri, director of the Arab Forum for Studies and Development, said that the Gaza war offered the Houthis an external cause through which to project local legitimacy and regional importance. "The Gaza war allowed the Houthis to present themselves as defenders of the oppressed and part of a regional resistance," he explained. "But if the ceasefire endures, they lose that pretext -- and with it, a key pillar of their political legitimacy."

Al-Bukiri argued that the Houthis' external engagements have largely masked their domestic shortcomings. "They have failed to construct an effective governance model or provide public services," he said, adding, "They have sought external wars to consolidate their power."

He further observed that the group's long reliance on the rhetoric of resistance may no longer be sustainable. "With the guns in Gaza now silent, the Houthis will find it increasingly difficult to justify continued mobilization or maintain the narrative of external struggle," he said. "They may no longer find convincing reasons to pursue domestic policies under the pretext of defending Palestine -- a tactic they have repeatedly used to consolidate internal control."

Political expert Abdulwahab Al-Awaj observed that the new regional dynamics have placed the Houthis in a more constrained position. "Iran, which has been their principal backer, may now need to recalibrate its approach to avoid a direct collision with Washington and its allies," he said. "This creates an intricate situation for the Houthis, whose regional role depends heavily on Tehran's political and logistical support."

Al-Awaj suggested that the Houthis are likely to engage in carefully measured actions aimed at preserving their symbolic relevance in the upcoming period. "They may pursue limited maritime disruptions or rhetorical escalation to maintain visibility," he said. "But they will likely avoid actions that could jeopardize Iran's broader diplomatic calculations or the emerging international consensus around de-escalation."

Houthi political activist Hussein Amlahy emphasized the need for continued vigilance within the movement, warning that Israeli intelligence remains alert and prepared to exploit any sign of weakness. "The leadership in Sanaa must remain cautious," he said. "Israel continues to monitor the situation closely and will act swiftly against any lapse in security or complacency. Maintaining discretion and operational discipline is essential at this stage."

He indicated that within Houthi ranks, the ceasefire is not viewed as a genuine end to hostilities but rather as a temporary lull in a longer confrontation. He also suggested that the group's leadership will likely maintain a heightened state of alert, limiting public exposure and reinforcing security protocols to prevent potential Israeli strikes.

As the Gaza ceasefire is about to take effect, Yemeni analysts remain deeply skeptical of Washington's intentions and credibility.

"A genuine peace process requires a just solution to the Palestinian issue -- one that recognizes Palestinian statehood and sovereignty. Without this, any U.S. initiative is bound to fail," said Al-Tamimi.

Al-Bukiri shared a similar perspective, describing U.S. peace proposals as detached from regional realities. "The so-called peace plan lacks sincerity and substance. Without addressing the root of the conflict -- the occupation and denial of Palestinian rights -- talk of comprehensive peace remains an illusion."

He clarified that peace in the Middle East cannot be achieved through empty declarations. It requires a fair and concrete resolution of the Palestinian issue.

Ali Bin Hadi, an Aden-based military observer, emphasized that regional peace cannot emerge from the same forces that fueled years of suffering. "The people of Gaza have endured unimaginable hardship -- bombings, hunger, and disease -- under a system of impunity that enjoyed Western backing," he said.

He noted that while Washington continues to project itself as a mediator, its unwavering support for Israel has undermined its credibility across much of the Arab and Islamic world. "It is difficult to see the United States, which has been a direct enabler of this suffering, as a neutral mediator."

Bin Hadi noted that what the region now needs is a sincere and balanced approach to peace.

For the broader Middle East, the ceasefire marks an opportunity -- yet one shadowed by deep mistrust of Western intervention and unaddressed questions of justice for the Palestinian people.

In this shifting landscape, the experts emphasize that true peace can only emerge from dialogue rooted in equality, mutual respect, and a just resolution to the Palestinian issue. Enditem