Total U.S. energy production growth will outpace the consumption through 2040 thanks largely to the increasing unconventional oil development, according to a federal government report released on Wednesday.

Evolving consumer preferences, improved technology, and economic changes had been pushing the U.S. to more domestic energy production, greater vehicle efficiency, greater use of clean energy, and reduced energy imports, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013 early release.

Crude oil production, especially from tight oil plays, will rise sharply over the next decade, predicted the EIA. It was estimated to reach 7.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, up from less than 6 million bpd in 2011.

Shale gas production was expected to be the driving force behind increased natural gas production. The momentum will help the U.S. become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas in 2016 and a net exporter of total natural gas in 2020, said the report.

Meanwhile the growth of energy use showed signs of flagging. The adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices will continue to push demand down. The stringent standards will increase the new vehicle fuel economy from 32.6 miles per gallon (mpg) in 2011 to 47.3 mpg in 2025, which was expected to save gasoline use in the transportation sector by 0.5 million bpd in 2025.

The report also found the net import share of total U.S. energy consumption will fall to 9 percent in 2040 from 19 percent in 2011.

The early release evaluates a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy market, compared with the AEO2012 released in June 2012. The full report of AEO2013 will be released in the spring of 2013. Endi

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