The long-standing tensions between the United States and Iran are once again in the spotlight, as both sides prepare for indirect high-level talks scheduled for Saturday in Oman's capital of Muscat.

While U.S. President Donald Trump describes the engagement as a "direct" dialogue, Iran insists it will be an "indirect" negotiation, mediated through third parties. Here's what we know and what remains uncertain.

What happened?

On Monday, Trump announced that the United States and Iran are engaged in "direct" negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that indirect high-level talks would be held in Oman. According to Iranian media, Araghchi and U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will lead their respective delegations.

This follows Trump's public call last month for direct nuclear talks, paired with a warning that military options remain on the table should diplomacy fail, a statement that heightened tensions in the region. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on March 30 that Tehran had rejected direct talks, via a message conveyed through Oman, but remained open to indirect negotiations, dependent on Washington's behavior.

Why Oman? 

Oman maintains longstanding friendly relations with both Washington and Tehran, and has repeatedly played the role of a neutral broker in times of crisis.

In early 2020, after the U.S. assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, the two countries were on the brink of open conflict. At that moment, Oman stepped in quietly to de-escalate tensions by facilitating secret communication between the sides.

Beyond Iran-U.S. relations, Oman has mediated multiple regional conflicts. It has hosted Houthi delegations in efforts to resolve the war in Yemen and helped broker a de facto ceasefire since 2022. In April 2023, Omani and Saudi delegations visited Sanaa for talks with Houthi leaders. Oman has also served as a bridge in the Syrian crisis, the Gulf diplomatic rift, and normalization efforts between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

What are the prospects? 

The negotiations, though a positive step, face daunting challenges.

First, the regional environment is increasingly volatile. Conflicts in Gaza, unrest in Lebanon and disrupted shipping in the Red Sea all contribute to an unpredictable security landscape. Any flashpoint could derail diplomatic efforts or lead to unintended escalations.

Second, Iran remains skeptical of U.S. intentions. The Trump administration's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the imposition of sweeping sanctions have eroded trust. Even as Washington seeks renewed engagement, Tehran is wary of committing to a process it fears may be reversed again.

Lastly, the two sides disagree on the format even before talks begin. Trump is pushing for direct dialogue, while Iran insists on mediation through intermediaries, an indication of how deep the mistrust has gone.

What's next? 

All eyes now turn to Muscat, where the upcoming discussions could either help reduce tensions or merely expose the limits of current diplomacy.

While Iran has kept the door open, it demands clarity and commitment. For now, the process remains fragile, with the outcome hinging on how both sides manage their mutual differences, but also on how they adapt to the turbulent currents of Middle Eastern geopolitics. 

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