"This is the first time since the end of the Korean War that two major security incidents involving the two Koreas have happened in one year," Piao Jianyi, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in a report released Tuesday at a seminar regarding China's strategy for regional security.

Piao was referring to the sinking of South Korea's Cheonan warship in March and the deadly exchange of artillery fire between the two Koreas on November 23.

"The US and South Korea favor military deterrence amid the current tensions because this year's incidents have almost killed their hopes of a diplomatic solution," Yang Danzhi, a co-compiler, wrote in the report. "However, a war between the two Koreas is highly unlikely. Neither of them has decisive military strength. And none of the other parties concerned would give full support to a full-scale conflict.

"The US has gained advantage from the current tensions, as they helped Washington consolidate an alliance with Seoul and Tokyo. For Pyongyang, the latest incident gave it a bargaining chip in the Six-Party Talks," he added.

Following his trip to North Korea, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said in Beijing that Pyongyang was moving in the right direction toward denuclearization.

However, it will take more than a day or two of peacefulness, void of military drills, threats or other signs of aggression to allay concerns among all parties.

Richardson told reporters that North Korea would allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) personnel to confirm that the country isn't processing highly enriched uranium, while "proceeding with peaceful purposes," AFP reported. 

Both Washington and Seoul are skeptical about Pyongyang's intentions to cooperate with the agency.

US State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said Monday that "North Korea talks a great game. They always do. The real issue is what will they do. We've seen a string of broken promises by North Korea going back many, many years."

South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan also downplayed the agreement apparently made with Richardson, saying it did not reflect the official stance in Washington, AFP reported.