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Beijing's property market cools down

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail CRI, September 5, 2011
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China's real estate market has witnessed a hike in profits for a long time. But there has been a change in recent months with government measures to cool it down.

Official data indicate property prices in first-tier cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, did not increase in July. This was the first time this had occurred in three years. In August, the volume of residential housing sales in Beijing saw its most serious drop since 2009.

A retired teacher surnamed Qiu wants to buy a new apartment, but he hasn't made a final decision. "The environment is good, and the air is fresh here, but the price is still high. I think the price will continue to fall and is not yet at the lowest point. We will observe and compare more properties on sale and wait for some time."

Some young prospective apartment buyers are also waiting for lower or more stable housing prices as the property market cools.

Wang Da, in his 20s, says,

"I don't want to buy house at present because it is too expensive, but I will buy one when the price is low enough."

Homebuyers are waiting for a turning point. But some experts say it is too early to tell when that time will come.

Huang Yu, Vice President of the China Index Academy, says:

"A turning point won't appear suddenly because there must be a certain process where many factors prompt the change. The first factor is the market. If the real estate transaction volume shrinks to a certain extent, buyers and seller will come to a deadlock for some time, and then prices may go down. The second factor depends on whether the companies have to survive by cutting prices. If some small companies have a problem with limited cash flow, then they will have to cut their prices. For some big companies, things are not so bad that they have to sell at a loss. So I do not think the turning point will come as soon as people expect."

Despite this, the fact remains that there are fewer customers in real estate sales offices, and agents face greater pressure in the market.

"The reason why the transaction volume has dropped is because customers are taking a wait-and-see attitude. They think prices will continue to fall. High expenses have forced some small real estate companies to shut down some chain stores."

Decreases in the average number of daily real estate transactions for new commercial housing and lower or unchanged property prices suggest that the government's cooling measures have started to work.

Since early last year, the government has unveiled a succession of policies to rein in property prices, including higher interest rates, limits on house purchases, increasing mandatory down payments and raising mortgage rates.

Huang Yu holds the view that the cool down will help the further development of the real estate market.

"I think for the big real estate companies, they will keep their focus in the field, so under the guidance of current policies, they should know how to adjust management changes according to policy development. The adjustment is good for big companies. For example, the top 100 companies can boost their market share after every adjustment, which develops the superior ones and weeds out the inferior ones. However, the adjustment will be a challenge for small companies. But the natural rule of selection is beneficial to the industry's development."

What will be the future development of Beijing's property market? It not only rests on the market, but it will also depend on the implementation of the government's tightening policies. Perhaps we can only take a "wait-and-see" attitude ourselves to see how the market will settle over time.

 

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