Despite recent tarnishing, gold faces bright future
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail Shanghai Daily, April 19, 2016
Today, China is the world's largest gold consumer and producer, but only a few Chinese companies, such as Zijin Mining Group, have bought mines abroad, unlike their peers in industrial metals. But things are changing. Despite their recent growth, gold prices are still trading close to levels last seen in 2010. Reportedly, Chinese gold miners are scouting for overseas acquisitions, encouraged by lower gold prices. These well-capitalized companies are positioned for global expansion.
As Chinese GDP per capita continues to double within the decade, consumer demand is likely to strengthen. Meanwhile, the PBoC will continue to increase its gold reserves, if only for diversification and to reduce dollar reliance. By the same token, Indian growth is likely to support similar trends.
If anything, investors' confidence in fiat currencies is diminishing, thanks to uncertainty about global growth, equities and dollar.
In relative terms, the relative role of the US dollar is slowly declining in the world economy. In the fall, the yuan will officially take its role among the reserve currencies of the International Monetary Fund. That, too, will contribute to the easing of the world's dollar-dependency, though gradually and over time.
In the final analysis, US rate hikes are likely to penalize gold prices in the short term. However, the spread of stagnation in major advanced economies will sustain negative rates and QE rounds in Europe and Japan for some time — and the US will not be immune to spillover effects either.
Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served as research director of international business at the India, China and America Institute (US) and a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore).
