Raising a Red Flag: China's economic future and cautious optimism
- By Kyle Calandra
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 7, 2016
Stressing the "need to advance China's economic structural reform," the report described this year's targeted growth as a means of maintaining market stability and guiding expectations.
Jia Kang, a member of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a former researcher with the Ministry of Finance, suggests: "As China's supply-side reform becomes more targeted and systematic, without any major policy errors, the country's economy may bottom out and later stabilize against the major downward pressure."
"However, this is a level that China must hold to, and the economy cannot afford growth to fall below 6.5 percent," he warned.
This year, the NPC and the CPPCC sessions have come at a time when the country is at a crossroads of future development. China is moving toward its goal to "build a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020," and efforts to create policies covering nearly every aspect of economic, political and social concern are being refined.
Considered the cornerstone of these efforts is the 13th Five Year Plan (2016-2020). Notably, it's the first plan drafted since China's economy began shifting toward the "new normal," and the first introduced under the current Chinese leadership, who will see the shift in economic policy as mirroring their transition to power. It also represents their consolidation of the government.
At the core of the 13th Five Year Plan, which are now being deliberated and discussed at the ongoing sessions before it is formalized, are policies centered on the Party's five core development ideas, namely innovation, coordination, green development, opening-up and sharing.
These ideas are seen as the four compass points guiding China's economic progress, with innovation as the North Star, unwavering over a horizon ready for the promising dawn of economic stability. Moreover, the government's policies which reinforce these ideas highlight the incremental and managed steps the Party is taking toward steadying the economy against a sea of rising concern.
Hopefully, the 13th Five Year Plan together with this year's targeted growth rate will be enough to signal future stability. Any encouraging signs for China's economy observed in the year to come will undoubtedly be greeted enthusiastically by the Chinese people, with the international community remaining cautiously optimistic.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
