City, London and the great renminbi race
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail Shanghai Daily, October 13, 2015
What changed the game was the UK's decision as the first major Western country to participate in the AIIB. It paved the way for the rest of Europe to follow in its footprints.
The problem is that, however global they may perceive themselves, even the largest international financial capitals must somehow reconcile their interests with those of the national interest.
Shanghai-HK stock connect
When HSBC recently measured the rapid expansion in yuan usage outside China's mainland, it concluded that most yuan bilateral swap lines, deposits, RQFII (renminbi foreign institutional investor) quotas and appointed clearing banks remained in Asia by far; particularly in Hong Kong, followed by Korea, and Singapore.
The UK had 200 billion yuan (US$31.5 billion) in bilateral swap lines (more than Switzerland), 25 billion yuan in deposits and 80 billion yuan in RQFII quotas. Despite its global financial clout, the US was absent.
Reminiscent of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect, the idea of a Shanghai-London connect also emerged last fall. Recently, China and the UK agreed to carry out a feasibility study on the project, which, along with major trade deals, is likely to be discussed during President Xi's state visit later in the month.
Of course, as critics argue, London faces many obstacles, from the time zone dilemma to the yuan as the sole settlement currency, among others. But at least London is on the right track.
Perhaps that's why Bloomberg applauded the US-China Summit's effort to increase the use of the yuan to facilitate trading and clearing in the US. In the race to become the first major clearinghouse for the yuan outside Asia, Wall Street cannot afford to fall behind.
Dr Dan Steinbock is the research director of international business at the India, China and America Institute (USA) a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and at EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net
