Fears of impending interest-rate hike tarnish gold
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail Shanghai Daily, August 12, 2015
There is also the view that China's gold demand has been slowing. In relative terms, demand has eased after the 2013 highs, but the growth trend prevails. Since 2009 the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves by 57 percent and the first quarter of 2015 was one of the best on record.
If Chinese GDP per capita continues to double within the decade, consumer demand is likely to hold, and the PBC will increase its gold reserves, if only for diversification and to reduce dollar reliance. Indian growth will prevail, it is likely to support similar trends.
The idea that a stronger dollar is negative for gold became conventional wisdom in the 1980s and 1990s. In those decades, mine production was still growing strongly, central banks were selling gold and the West drove global growth prospects.
That's not the case today. Mine production is expected to dwindle in the coming years. Central banks are no longer net sellers, but net buyers. Gold demand is fueled by Asian demand, particularly by China and India which account for more than 40 percent of total demand and over 50 percent of private demand.
Also, the monopoly role of the US dollar that has driven markets since 1945. As the renminbi takes its place among major reserve currencies, the world's dollar-dependency will ease. Indeed, the short-term case for gold looks bumpy because US rate hikes are likely to tax the glitter of the precious metal.
Nevertheless, the medium- and especially long-term case look different because the new drivers of gold demand, particularly in Asia, could prove relatively solid through the 2020s.
Dr Dan Steinbock is the research director of international business at the India, China and America Institute (USA) a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and at EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
