China and Eurasia: an element of a new world order?
- By Tim Collard
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 17, 2015
However, this Russian project offers another potential element in China's plan to make use of every possible opportunity for building strategic partnerships; if the EEU has anything to offer, China will be glad to look into the possibility of mutual benefits. Already, with the founding of the SCO, China has demonstrated that valuable projects can be established in what was formerly unpromising territory (the small Central Asian republics left over from the Soviet break-up). And, of course, the building of links with Russia's Eurasian project makes a good geographical fit with the "Silk Road Economic Belt" concept. In fact, a formal link between the two projects has already been mooted, under the ever-spreading auspices of the SCO. Russia would clearly like to see a new world economic powerhouse emerging in a region where it is powerful.
This linkage provides China with an opportunity to position her ambitious initiative to build a new "techno-city" in the neighbourhood of Minsk, the capital of Belarus, as part of its engagement with Russia's Eurasia project. This initiative, launched in 2013, was initially motivated at least as strongly by the wish for easy access to EU markets (Poland and Lithuania are only three or four hundred kilometers from Minsk) as by the desire to access the customs union which has now grown into the EEU. But China's political and commercial neutrality has enabled it to seek advantage from connections with both the EU and EEU, and also to use her economic clout to cut an extremely favorable deal with the Belarusian government, whereby the whole project will be financed by China and largely built with Chinese equipment and labor. And, of course, it is an initiative from which everyone stands to gain; if it succeeds in economic regeneration of that region of Eurasia, it will be the first time for several centuries that that has happened there.
Whether the economic returns really do justify the effort and investment remains to be seen; but it must be said that China's record in creating rapid economic improvement in previously backward areas, whether in Asia or in Africa, has been impressive. And, although China is careful not to appear involved in any way with Russia's current process of closing itself off from the West, that process inevitably means an increased dependence on China to provide the economic stability required to survive a long political stand-off. Russia's problem has always been a lack of high-tech export capacity (except in the military sphere) and the resulting dependence on natural resources, which, though plentiful, can be subject to price shocks, as is currently the case. And, given the rise of globalization and diversity in supply, it has become a great deal more difficult to use the "energy weapon" than it was a generation ago.
But, whatever the long-term results, it certainly makes sense for China to build an economic stake in as many parts of the world as is possible, as there is no better underpinning for global peace and security than a global network of mutual economic interests.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.shenbo75.com/opinion/timcollard.htm
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