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Inconclusiveness and implications for China-Iran economic cooperation

By Jin Liangxiang
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, July 13, 2015
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The Iran nuclear negotiation has bypassed another deadline in July 1. Observers are expecting high of a deal between Iran and p5+1 after another delay of a week. It is certainly reasonable after long patience for a deal. But Iran nuclear issue, whether a deal is available or not, is actually a process not necessarily with a conclusion, and the disputes have caused huge negative impacts on China-Iran economic relations, but such impacts will be weakened as US dominant economic role elapses.

The willingness and the resolve on both US and Iranian sides for reaching a deal should not be doubted. The single fact that John Kerry, Secretary of State of the most powerful global actor and Mohammad Zarif, Foreign Minister of one of the most influential Middle East regional powers stayed together in Lausanne from March 26 through April 2 for the framework agreement has sufficiently demonstrated such willingness and resolve. And foreign ministers of other parties joined in their efforts with almost the same length of time. And they were all in Switzerland for the same purpose from early July through another extension till July 7. Judging by the levels of the negotiators and the length of the time they spent in Switzerland, this should be kept in the history of international relations.

The current negotiation will produce either a diluted agreement with some of the thorny issues to be dropped for future negotiation or result in another extension. On the one hand, neither side can accept a failed negotiation; on the other hand, the distance of the positions of US and Iran on removing sanctions and inspections on sensitive sites cannot be bridged easily.

Even if a comprehensive deal is reached, diluted or not, does not mean a conclusion of the disputes. So long as the low level of trust exists, the US together with Gulf Arab states, Israel and even its European allies will still doubt that Iran will weaponize its nuclear program. Neither the US nor Iran will in the predictable future easily overcome the psychological barriers as a result of decades of hostilities. Questioning and counter-questioning will still be normality.

And what's more, the Iran nuclear issue will once again float above the water after ten, fifteen or twenty years with the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program to be removed. According to the parameters of the framework agreement published in the White House website after April 2, some of the restrictions are for ten years, some others for fifteen years and some others twenty years.

Nevertheless, a deal even not satisfying either party should be good news. Such a deal will ease the tensions between US and Iran at least temporarily, and will even pave roads for further reconciliation between the two hostile parties. And it should not be expected that the two can resolve all the problems overnight.

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