The problem is that a government cannot control a popular referendum as it can a vote in Parliament, and it is not at all out of the question that a majority of the British people will opt for an exit from the EU, giving the government no choice but to bring this about. This would undoubtedly lead to a great deal of uncertainty over Britain's position in Europe – and thus over Europe's position in the world – between now and the end of 2017, and maybe beyond.

The second new factor is the position of Scotland. In September 2014, the Scottish regional government held a referendum on the question of Scottish independence, and the Scots duly voted to retain their membership in the United Kingdom. However, in the May 7 general election, the Scottish National Party, which lists independence among its key goals, swept the board in the Scottish electoral region, winning 56 of 59 seats with a total of over 50 percent of the popular vote. This will not mean a revival of the demand for independence: the result of last September's referendum will be respected.

However, the result clearly shows demand for a far greater degree of Scottish autonomy within the U.K., and Cameron will find it difficult to get his policies accepted in Scotland, where his Conservative Party holds only one parliamentary seat.

The U.K. may well be on track for some sort of "one country, two systems" arrangement, and the 56-strong Scottish parliamentary group in the House of Commons will be busily negotiating new constitutional arrangements that might well change the face of the U.K. permanently. None of this needs to worry Britain's overseas partners – it will be a U.K. internal issue, but it will certainly affect certain parts of Britain's relations with the outside world, just as the reassumption of Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong and Macao has affected China's overseas dealings. Britain's friends and partners have no cause for concern, but it will be an interesting few years for us and for those who have dealings with us.

The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.shenbo75.com/opinion/timcollard.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn

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