Iran-US détente and its impact on the Arab world
- By Jin Liangxiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, December 25, 2014
The prospect of a final deal will have to depend on the interactions between supporters and opponents in the United States and Iran. But the détente, will probably not be reversed at least in the coming last two years of Obama's presidency.
Arab Sunnis will still be a dominant power in the region judging by the size of the geographical areas and their population. But recent developments will certainly further undermine the influence of Arab Sunnis in the region.
The rise of Iran and the Shiites is not a result of Iran's own development but a byproduct of the wrong policy of the United States. Because of the war in Iraq, Iran has been able to connect the Shiite population in the region. As King Abdullah II of Jordan said, there is now a Shiite arch running from Iran to Iraq, to Lebanon and Syria in the Middle East. The rise of pro-Iran Shiites in Yemen even tilted the balance of power between Arab Sunnis and Shiites. And Iran also has a dominant influence in Afghanistan.
What's more, with Iran having a prominent role, the Shiite countries and factions are much better organized and coordinated. For instance, when Bashar Assad's regime was nearing defeat, it was Hizbollah of Lebanon that came to their rescue on Iran's request. Major General Ghasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Division, has been directing Iraq's security forces in their fight against ISIS.
The potential breakthrough of the nuclear negotiation and détente is a reflection of Iran's growing influence in the region. The United States cannot avoid accepting Iran as a major regional power. It also signifies that the U.S. is unwilling to invest strategic resources to contain Iran.
Or to put it another way, the geopolitical benefits that Iran and the Shiites have gained since the Iraqi war will be finally recognized. And what's more, Iran will be able to move further by taking advantage of the latest developments.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://china.org.cn/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm
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