China is "trapped" with a "super low birth rate." Based on experiences and facts, there are four changes taking place in China's birth rate: (1) local low birth rates are turning into an overall low birth rate; (2) a short-term low birth rate is changing into a sustained low birth rate; (3) the exogenic low birth rate is becoming endogenic low birth rate; and (4) a very low birth rate is turning into an extremely low birth rate. No doubt, the four changes are an objective tendency.

The renaissance of a big power requires "new family planning." Births decide the future of the population while the population decides the future of a country. Only by proper fertility can population vitality be maintained, and only by optimizing the population can there be long-term stability. Based on the national conditions, I put forward two basic points for proper fertility theory: First, the one-child policy should no longer be sponsored and enforced; and second, it is not enough just to allow couples to have a second child. Appropriate incentives are necessary as well. The government should carefully think about a "proper fertility" strategy to adjust the population policy as soon as possible, and control, prevent and reduce the risks and costs of population development.

In order to avoid and reduce risks and achieve safe and sustainable population development, China's family planning policy should changing from birth control to optimized birth, creating a healthy family ecology with not only a relationship between husband and wife, but also between parents and children and brothers and sisters. It should encourage and increase the number of "optimum families."

The core of family planning policy reform is not to ignore the appeal for a second child in families where both parents are not from single child families. Instead, it is to protect by all means the initiative and action of having a second child. Only by doing so can population security, which is the basis of the national security, be truly guaranteed. Besides, having a second child is a necessary condition in maintaining population replacement.

China's vast territory has an unpredictable population capacity. There is great flexibility in its system, environment and economy. Science can never assert what the upper population limit is for a country with vast territory and rich resources. Besides, in an open system, the "invisible hand" of market mechanism will automatically adjust the population. Also, the self-organizing mechanism of the population will actively adapt to environmental changes. Therefore, a wise, long-term population outlook would not involve artificially setting the upper limit for the population.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.shenbo75.com/opinion/muguangzong.htm

This article was translated by Li Bin. Its original version was published in Chinese.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.