President Obama's cautious view of China
- By Tim Collard
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E-mail China.org.cn, August 10, 2014
He ended on a note somewhere between realistic and confrontational, mentioning that Chinese negotiators are very hard-headed and determined, and that their negotiating partners have to be prepared to be very firm: "they will push as hard as they can until they meet resistance. They're not sentimental, and they are not interested in abstractions." President Obama recommended a tough stance when China appeared to be breaching "international norms", but accompanied by a positive approach intended to make clear the benefits for China in adhering to these norms. He did not address the question of what role China should have in the management and development of such "international norms", although it should be clear to the president, that it is unrealistic simply to assume that China should simply conform to a pre-existing system established without participating in shaping it.
The general impression given by this interview is that the U.S. administration is keen to avoid conflict with China, and that, if differences of opinion do have to be aired, the United States would prefer to confine them to the financial and economic fields. The main strategic problems involve Russia, which also featured prominently in the Economist interview; the Americans have no wish to be confronting too many other powers at once.
Also, President Obama is keen to explore the various possibilities for integrating China as a stable member of the global financial system. His aims here are not confrontational: he believes that the current system of international finance represents a generally acceptable modus vivendi, and he hopes that China can be incorporated into the status quo without too much need for fundamental renegotiation. His view on the alternative model for global development finances offered by the BRICS bank will be cautious, eager to seek out tendencies which the United States can work with while warning against the over-politicization of global finance. Also, of course, like all national leaders, he needs to show his home audience that he is capable of being tough in their interests.
At this stage in his administration, President Obama is under no compulsion to make too many concessions to the whims of his electorate, as he will not be standing for President again. But he remains conscious that public opinion in the United States is extremely polarized, and that he would like to be remembered as having conducted a successful presidency. This, for all U.S. Presidents in the foreseeable future, will have to involve adapting the United States' global position to accommodate the inexorable rise of China; not to resist it, for that will not be possible, but by showing the way towards a roughly equal partnership based on principles which combine the core interests of both countries and the physical and financial security of the world as a whole.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.shenbo75.com/opinion/timcollard.htm
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