The Iran nuclear issue: three scenarios
- By Jin Liangxiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 1, 2014
Though this scenario ends with Iran's further compliance and limited concessions on the U.S. side, it does not mean that Iran will not see any gains. On the contrary, Iran can also witness potential advantages. The country will have its compliance in this regard appreciated by some major European countries and developing countries alike, and will break through its diplomatic impasse on a global scale. As a matter of fact, shortly after the interim agreement was reached, politicians from Britain, Italy and Germany have already visited Tehran to improve relations.
On the other hand, Iran's compliance will make it difficult for the United States to assert legitimacy of the sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors, and the U.S. will have its own image greatly undermined due to seemingly inflexibility. A U.S.-EU discrepancy in this regard is bound to increase, proving it even harder for the United States to reach an international consensus on the Iran nuclear issue.
The third scenario will be a new round of confrontations between the United States and Iran. In this design, Iran's conservatives would strongly oppose the unbalanced concessions of their government. As a result, the negotiations would be disrupted and new U.S.-Iran confrontations would arise. Though it is highly unlikely that Hassan Rouhani's government will initiate a hard line foreign policy, chances will be high that Iran will see another radical president after Rouhani leaves office.
All in all, if sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors cannot be removed, a new round of rapprochement between the United States and Iran will not necessarily be irreversible, and any U.S.-Iran reconciliation will still be vulnerable. We can expect any outcome to the Iran nuclear issue, even expect the unexpected, but the first scenario will be the most likely, then the second and then the third.
Worthy of a special nod is the fact that Hassan Rouhani seems to have been well-prepared for all the predictions regarding the nuclear issue. He even wrote a three-step proposal about Iran-U.S. relations shortly after his election as president. The first step is to change confrontation into tension between the two, the second step to gradually reduce tension and on a third level then to improve relations in other areas. Rouhani well understands that Iran-U.S. relations cannot be reversed and the nuclear issue cannot be solved overnight.
Rouhani's government budget for 2014 also reflects such calculations. According to a Tehran Times report on December 30, 2013, Rouhani's government actually produced two shadow budget plans for 2014. The original one assumes the status quo will be maintained; the two shadow plans deal with the scenarios of either sanctions being removed or sanctions being added respectively.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://china.org.cn/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm
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