Rising East, emerging West
- By Marios Maratheftis
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E-mail China Daily, December 24, 2013
China should be particularly pleased with the upturn in the West as it tries to usher in the most ambitious package of reforms since it opened up to the world in the 1980s. In fact, reform and rebalancing will be in focus across Asia in the coming year. Premier Li has been tasked with overseeing China's economic rebalancing, with consumption growing in importance relative to investment. This is moving along nicely, and the recently concluded Third Plenary Session provided the clearest sign that President Xi Jinping and his colleagues in the Politburo of the Communist Party of China are leading the ambitious agenda for economic and social reform.
Starting next year, expect a stronger push for land and State-owned enterprise reform, a further opening of the capital account, and less intervention in the currency markets. These reforms are necessary for the sustainability of China's growth, but short-term volatility cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile, economies in Southeast Asia are likely to benefit from their growing competitiveness with China as a manufacturing center, enabling them to attract increased foreign direct investment. Urbanization, a strong driver of growth in the region, has a long way to go with the build-up of infrastructure and increased industrial activity.
As in Asia, the resource-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the Middle East can look forward to a strong year ahead. Oil prices are likely to remain above levels that would boost the coffers of GCC governments, enabling them to use their fiscal strength to drive near-term growth and diversify their economies away from energy industries. However, oil importers in the Middle East and North Africa face slower economic activity, rising fiscal pressures and increasing youth unemployment. Thus, the Middle East remains a tale of two worlds.
Meanwhile, Africa is likely to outperform world growth in 2014, as it has for the past decade. Resource exploration remains important and commodity output gains should compensate for weaker prices in terms of the impact on growth. However, domestic demand remains the fundamental driver of growth across the continent. The rise of the African consumer - spurred by an improved policy environment, stable inflation, greater savings and a more open embrace of the private sector - is being reinforced by large-scale infrastructure and resource investment, as seen most recently in eastern Africa, where governments are keen to commercialize new oil and gas discoveries.
All in all, 2014 should be a better year than 2013. The global economic recovery, so far shouldered by the emerging economies, is likely to broaden with the West joining in. However, the growth gap between G7 and the emerging markets is unlikely to close anytime soon. Challenges lurk as the Fed forays into unchartered territory yet again, this time trying to undo its QE program. Meanwhile, China is about to enter its most decisive phase of reform as it strives to become a consumer-driven, middle-income economy.
The author is global head of macro research at Standard Chartered Bank.
