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Turkey unlikely to wage a war against Syria

By Yu Yi
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail People's Daily, October 24, 2012
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Whether the limited military conflict along Syrian-Turkish border will evolve into a war has drawn wide attention around the world.

Some media outlets said that Turkey has always been supporting Syrian rebels to resort to regional and international community to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad and resolve Syrian crisis ultimately. However, the goal has not yet been realized until now and the seesaw battle still remains between Syrian government forces and opposition. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that a war should be waged to finish the regime of Bashar.

Are Syria and Turkey pushed to the brink of war? Some media outlets believe that Turkey’s harsher stance on Syria merely aims to send a "tough" signal to the Syrian regime, which indicates that Turkey will not wage a war against Syria. However, others believe that Turkish policies on Syrian crisis are based on the intended purpose of overthrowing the current Syrian regime so the relations of the two countries cannot be retrieved. With authorization of Turkish parliament on use of force and support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the war is most likely to break out.

Turkey’s attempt to take military operations against Syria is restricted by many factors. Firstly, such countries as Russia and Iran support Syrian people to solve the crisis by themselves and oppose foreign intervention while Western countries have not overtly proposed to resolve the Syrian crisis through external military intervention. Secondly, if Turkey starts a war, the Arab world will be worried about whether the Ottoman Empire comes back, which exerts a negative impact on the image of Turkey. Thirdly, once the war occurs, the Syrian regime will back Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK) to attack Turkey, thus causing explosion of domestic situation in Turkey.

In addition, Turkey must take several factors into consideration before waging a war against Syria. First, as the allies of Syria, Iran, Russia and Iraq will not stand idle. Iran asserts that the security of Syrian regime is closely related to stability of Iran. Russia says it will veto any resolution of U.N. Security Council on taking military action on Syria. Second, Turkey should be clearly aware that it is impossible for NATO to coordinate Turkish military operations without permission of the United States while the approaching presidential election makes it hard for United States to make decisions on the issue. Thirdly, Syria still has a strong military capability so Turkey must be ready to endure the possible devastating consequences if war does break out.

 

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