European disunity - end of a dream?
- By Geoffrey Murray
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China.org.cn, December 22, 2011
Although it seemed for a while that it would be "26-against-one" (Britain being the latter), that no longer seems so clear.
The Franco-German treaty proposal will have to be an intergovernmental deal rather than an EU one, which gives it less weight, and also marginalizes the EU Commission, supposedly the heart of a unified and equal Europe.
This raises certain both legal and political problems. There is little incentive for a handful of countries like Sweden, supported by natural resources and a strong tax base, to abandon any more of their sovereignty.
Ireland cannot commit itself either without seeking public approval in a referendum; and, although the government publicly says it's confident this would yield a 'yes' note, others in the country are less sure. Meanwhile, Hungary and the Czech Republic have both rejected tax harmonization.
And what of the eurozone itself? For the first time, the unthinkable is being discussed in the corridors of power – namely, the possibility of a country decided to abandon the euro and return to its own currency.
The country being talked about at present is Greece, whose financial collapse really began this whole sorry saga. But there are other weak eurozone economies that are beginning to realize the high price they will have to pay to stay bound to the single currency and that is a great deal more hardship and sacrifice. How much of this will the public take before unrest erupts and governments begin collapsing?
In recent weeks, Greeks have been anticipating this possibility by withdrawing their euro deposits from local banks and shifting their savings abroad or into some non-currency form.
However, there is no explicit clause in European treaties at present for a smooth departure, either forced or voluntary; there is also the possibility, Greece would have to leave the EU.
Last time, I wrote about the euro, on the theme of German dominance, some German readers castigated me. But, interestingly, one confirmed my argument that it was France who insisted on the creation of monetary union to curb German power in the EU, adding: 'Please give us back our beloved Deutschmark'.
Not very encouraging; increasingly, it looks as if European disunity could undermine all the great hopes of the visionaries who first proposed a unified Europe.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.shenbo75.com/opinion/geoffreymurray.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
