Thai domestic turmoil behind border clash
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Abhisit's fundamental problem is that he lacks popular legitimacy, having come to power in a 2008 parliamentary coup following weeks of Yellow Shirt demonstrations that culminated in the occupation of Bangkok's main airport. And he faces problematic electoral arithmetic. Each time voters have been called on in recent years, they have delivered a majority to parties supported by the Red Shirt coalition.
Most of the mainly working class Red Shirts support the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who introduced popular health and welfare reforms during his period in office. But the Yellow Shirts, who are drawn from the business class and monarchists, see the working class and rural poor as dupes of the exiled billionaire, unqualified to vote. Their determination to prevent another Red Shirt election victory has driven them to adopt a high-risk strategy that may result in war with Cambodia.
Some among the fractious right wing alliance have now turned against Abhisit and are calling for to be replaced, by what means they have not specified. Yellow Shirt leader Sondhi Limthongkul has gone so far as to denounce Abhisit as a traitor.
It is possible that the remobilization of the Yellow Shirts will help Abhisit survive an election by presenting himself as a moderate centrist. He has tried to win over some Red Shirt supporters by extending welfare measures. An Abhisit victory would, of course, be the favored result for the international community, who see him as an ideal business-friendly politician, lacking only the benediction of the electorate.
But with all political forces in Thailand fragmented, society polarized between rich and poor, and the exiled Thaksin still calling many of the shots, prospects of ending the turmoil seem some way off and the threat to peace remains real.
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