What ails Sino-US relations
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Q: Before Google left the Chinese mainland, Beijing accused Washington of abetting the online search engine. On the other hand, the US complained that China was being "bold" on Google's withdrawal because the environment for foreign investors in the country had changed as it was now trying to protect domestic enterprises. What is your opinion on this?
A: I'm not an economist, and I don't know much about China-US economic relations.
From a political perspective, the dispute reminds us of the serious differences over human rights between China and the US. The conflict over human rights will resurface whenever a chance presents itself. The Google incident is nothing but another Sino-US conflict over human rights. But it's nothing compared to China-US disputes over human rights in the early 1990s.
The Google dispute, nevertheless, tells us that Sino-US differences over human rights will be difficult to resolve. What's more, whenever the US thinks the time is "right", it will use a certain incident to pressure China over human rights. The Google dispute ended without a clear-cut solution, and that means disputes over human rights will continue to influence Sino-US ties. Yet human rights conflicts have less of an impact on Sino-US ties than business or security disputes.
Q: How will Sino-US ties fare in the second half of this year?
A: There will be no marked improvement between July and October. On the contrary, it is likely that new business conflicts will occur. The relationship may start improving from November or December because top Chinese officials are scheduled to visit the US then.
But by the end of this year, bilateral ties are not likely to reach the level of last November when Obama visited China. The yuan is likely to rise against the US dollar during the rest of the year. But since the revaluation will be limited, the US may not be satisfied and that could intensify trade frictions between the two countries.
Q: What should Chinese and US leaders do to maintain healthy bilateral ties?
A: The common interests of China and the US are limited. They won't increase just because Chinese and American leaders wish them to, rather they depend on reality.
If leaders of the two countries want to expand the scope of Sino-US cooperation, they have to expand their common interests instead of intensifying their conflicts. That is, they should work toward preventing new conflicts from arising and keeping the existing ones from escalating.
The fact is, neither China nor the US is willing to face up to its conflicts of interests. If they don't accept the disputes, their policies can only cover up mutual differences, not stabilize the relationship.
In my opinion, if the two sides can face up to their conflicts of interests, they can lay a foundation for preventive cooperation. And this can help stabilize Sino-US ties.
