Australian Health Minister Nicola Roxon said on Thursday that the country's A/H1N1 flu death toll could reach 6,000 under a worst-case scenario.
Roxon's admission came a day after she dismissed as "ludicrous" a prediction the toll could reach 10,000.
"We could expect around 6,000 deaths across the country," Roxon told Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio.
That's really the worst-case scenario, which was based on no medical intervention, including antiviral treatment for people contracting the virus, and vaccines, she said.
Roxon said higher death estimates of 12,500 and 30 percent infection rate, drawn from a 2005 interim influenza pandemic action plan, were not applicable for the A/H1N1 influenza virus because that estimate was based on a "more severe flu".
Influenza A/H1N1 emerged as the dominant flu in Australia this winter with 10,387 confirmed cases, 23 deaths following another death in the Northern Territory, and a further 58 people with the virus are in intensive care units in hospital.
Roxon said hospitals had plans in place to cope with the numbers but elective surgery and other procedures may have to be delayed.
Australia ordered 21 million doses of vaccine against A/H1N1 flu, which is due to be ready in October following clinical trials starting next week.
(Xinhua News Agency July 16, 2009)
