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Officials' sedans parked in front of the Beijing liaison office of the Chengdu government. The central government will start to assess both the economic and environmental development efforts of local government officials. [CFP]

Explaining the mathematical model that his colleagues had built, Bai said the money would be mainly used to introduce technologies that raise the energy efficiency of end-users in industry, construction and transportation.

If the investment showed results, it would mean the country's per capita greenhouse gas emissions would increase by only 50 percent during the 2010-50 period - to 6 tons from the present 4 tons. Per capita emissions stood at 3.58 tons in 2004.

The target could be made a national goal, given that per capita income is expected to increase 10-fold to 200,000 yuan by 2050 from 20,000 yuan in 2010.

Jiang Kejun, another researcher at the NDRC institute, said the project would offer a low-carbon alternative for the consideration of top policymakers.

Low-carbon emissions should be made standard State policy, at least in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) if not in the 12th plan period itself, Jiang said.

He Jiankun said the country's carbon dioxide emissions were likely to peak in 2035, at 8.8 billion tons, when industrialization and urbanization would be in an advanced stage, compared with around 5.5 billion tons in 2010.

Spending on climate increased nearly 100%

But from 2035 to 2050, emissions would remain stable or decline marginally if the proper technological route was followed, He said. "This is our ideal carbon map," He said.

The government's stimulus effort has already won international recognition. The Washington-based World Resources Institute said recently that about 38 percent of China's stimulus package investment was "directly or indirectly" related to environmental protection.

The Ministry of Finance said that, between January and May, spending on environmental protection rose 93.5 percent over the corresponding period last year.

Despite the low-carbon roadmap and the central government's commitment to sustainable development, some regions in China had yet to make progress in "green recovery."

Li Ganjie, the vice-minister of environmental protection, said the central government would continue to pump enough investments into environmental protection. "But, I doubt whether the local governments would be able to fully implement these environmental standards," said Li.

To change the situation, He said the solution was to alter the assessment system of officials. "If we fire them when they fail in environmental protection and carbon reduction goals, our economy will see more sustainable development."

(China Daily July 6, 2009)