Despite the fastest growth in years in 2000, the world economy is unlikely to scale new heights in 2001, Chinese economists predict.
This is because the factors contributing to the economic boom this year will gradually weaken, thus reducing the growth momentum of the world economy to a normal speed next year, according to forecasts made by the economists in a book to be published soon.
The book, titled "2000--2001: World Economy Analyses and Predictions", presents a macro-outlook of the world's economic situation at the turn of the century.
Co-written by several dozen senior Chinese economists, this annual economic report is also known as "World Economy Yellow Paper".
The global economic growth rate this year is expected to hit 4. 1 percent, a sharp increase from 2.8 percent last year, and both the developed and the developing countries have witnessed notable economic growth, according to the book.
Global trade volume is forecast to grow a year-on-year 12.2 percent in 2000, the highest growth rate within the past two decades.
As the major force propelling the development of the world economy, America's economy has witnessed a slowdown.
On Europe, the yellow paper says, "Taking into account the fact that the European Central Bank has adopted a policy of improving interest rates, we could not expect the next year's economic development pace in the Euro region to exceed this year."
The book also details essential factors that may possibly slow down the economic development of East Asia (except for Japan) and Russia.
Based upon the analysis over each economic region, the yellow paper draws the conclusion that the world economy will be back to the normal track next year.
It says that there still exist many uncertainties in the world economy, and the possibility of sudden economic upheavals cannot be ruled out.
(Xinhua 12/13/2000)
