Third Plenum: A clear broad picture but low on specifics
- By Tim Collard
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 14, 2013
As usual, however, the statement issued after the plenary session were somewhat low on specifics. The statement, referring to the "decisive role" of the market economy in allocating resources is certainly an advance on previous positions, which were set out before a clear consensus had been established. But now it has been clear for some time that a market-based economy is the aim. Various leading groups have been set up to move this forward across different sectors of the economy. But, as in the familiar phrase which was trotted out once more in the plenum's communiqué, China is still "crossing the river by feeling for the stones." And, if you do that, you don't know precisely which point on the opposite bank you will reach.
The implication of a move towards a greater marketization of the Chinese economy is that the government's role will be diminished. However, "crossing the river by feeling the stones" requires the maintenance of control. This has always been the central issue facing China's government ever since that even-more-famous Third Plenum of 1978; how far can you relax control without losing it altogether? The government has always had far too strong a sense of responsibility to take excessive risks; can this be combined with the boldness essential to completing the journey of reform?
It was good to see a clear sense of direction on one key issue which will become increasingly central; the establishment of a social security system. China's admirable family-based informal welfare system is now at breaking point, and demographics will form the last straw. At least the leadership has recognised that tackling this issue cannot be further delayed.
One slightly surprising outcome of the plenary session related to the military. One statement which emerged was that "the PLA must be under the direct command of the Party," and that "great effort should be put into solving outstanding conflicts and problems hindering the development of national defence and the armed forces." Surely we have always known that the PLA is under the direct command of the Party. The statement did not go into detail about what the "outstanding conflicts and problems" are, but it is clear that they exist. And defence capability cannot but influence foreign policy. China has always insisted that the rest of the world has nothing to fear from Chinese military development, but it is certainly a matter of keen interest to us.
And so the Third Plenum leaves us with a continuing sense of expectation and a degree of uncertainty. The broad picture is clear, and in line with expectations. As ever, the devil will be in the detail. Attention will now pass to the work of the newly-formed Central Reform Leading Group and the various departments of Premier Li Keqiang's government. The whole world has an interest in China maintaining a secure footing among the slippery stones.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.shenbo75.com/opinion/timcollard.htm
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