Authorities were unable to accurately predict the recent weather
conditions due to lack of equipment and an adequate forecast model,
the national meteorological agency has said.
"We underestimated the duration and severity of the weather and
failed to pre-evaluate its impact on transport and the power
sector," China Meteorological Administration (CMA) spokeswoman Jiao
Meiyan said.
The CMA had forecast all five rain and snowstorms between Jan 10
and Feb 5 two to five days in advance. But it failed to alert the
public to the extreme danger of the storms.
"One reason why the weather department could not make precise
forecasts is because many of the places most affected were located
in mountainous areas where meteorological monitors are in short
supply," Duan Yihong, deputy director of the National
Meteorological Center, said.
"Another major problem is that China's numerical weather
forecasts still fall far behind world standards."
Numerical weather forecasts, based on calculations by
high-performance computers, are a core part of modern weather
bulletins. China began to develop its own numerical forecast model
less than a decade ago.
There is a 10-year gap between the Chinese model and advanced
foreign models, Duan said.
The extreme weather also made it a huge challenge for Chinese
meteorologists.
"It was increasingly difficult to forecast as low-probability
extreme weather is occurring more frequently," Qiao Lin, chief
weather forecaster of the Central Meteorological Station, said.
To enhance the country's defense against extreme weather, China
will begin to establish a monitoring and warning system, Jiao
said.
(China Daily February 15, 2008)