One or more typhoons originating from the northwestern part of
the Pacific or South China Sea are likely to hit China before the
end of this month, experts are predicting.
But even if the predictions prove true, this year's typhoon
season is shaping up to be less intense than those in years
past.
"However, nothing is certain," said Liu Zhenkun, senior engineer
at the typhoon and sea weather forecast centre under the China
Meteorological Administration (CMA).
This year's typhoon season has been marked by small and shorter
than normal storms, he added.
As of yesterday, there had been nine typhoons, 3.5 less than the
average for this period of the season. The first typhoon this year
hit Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on July 5, about a week later
than in previous years.
On average, about 28 typhoons hit between June and October every
year, Qian Chuanhai, a typhoon forecaster at the China Central
Observatory, said.
Qian added that ferries and other ships plying coastal waters,
as well as civil affairs and disaster relief departments should be
prepared for sudden storms.
Normally, the typhoons that hit China originate in the northern
and western parts of the Pacific and the South China Sea.
Zhang Peiqun, director of the CMA's climate forecast office,
told that the relative lack of activity in the normal air current
above the northwestern Pacific had contributed to the abnormal
typhoon activity this year. Normally, warmer, damper air in the
area cycles upward, while cooler falls to the surface.
"The impact of climate change is reflected in the formation of
typhoons," Zhang said.
Research has shown that the water surface temperature in the
west Pacific is lower than usual, while that in the east Pacific is
higher.
"The uneven water temperature has resulted in abnormal
atmospheric circulation," the director said.
The interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere under such
circumstances also decreases the possibility of a cyclone
happening.
Tropical cyclones cause tropical storms and eventually typhoons
if they are strong enough, Zhang said.
(China Daily August 22, 2007)