Growth in China set to slow in post-industrial era
- By Li Jiangtao
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 2, 2014
An economic slowdown will call for appropriate policy adjustments, because environmental protection and the preservation of natural resources will need to be a top priority.
Second, protection of the environment and ecology at the same time as developing the economy will be dependent on institutional support. Ecological protection is an important factor in detaching GDP from the assessment of quality of governance. However, since China is still highly backward in its development, there is not enough awareness of the need to protect the environment.
Third, industrial transformation should continue. In the past few decades, China's high economic growth rate has primarily relied on industrial growth. Overcapacity, especially in the high polluting and high energy-consuming industries, which has come as a byproduct of the country's rapid economic development, needs to be phased out.
At the same time, emerging industries, which represent strategic implications, should be given high priority. Existing industries in China should try raising their position in the global distribution chain, and root this principle in the minds of local governments.
Fourth, industrial development should address regional discrepancies. Industrially developed areas have been given higher priority and opportunities, attracting inbound flowing wealth, which in turn has fostered better public services such as education and public transport. Affluent areas should give away some of their development dividends to less developed areas in a bid to achieve equality.
In summary, a modernized country requires a certain growth rate to keep moving forward. China is set to become the world's largest economy in the future. But while China may delight in having the largest GDP, it should not also seek to have the world's highest GDP per capita. Given China's limited resources and the largest population in the world, such an outcome would be disastrous.
The author is a professor in Economics at the China National School of Administration.
The article was translated by Chen Boyuan. Its original unabridged version was published in Chinese.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
