No major outcomes expected from a diminished G8 summit
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E-mail Xinhua, May 18, 2012
The summit of the Group of Eight (G8) industrialized countries is due to be held at Camp David in Maryland from Friday to Saturday.
However, with the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the still fledging relations between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the new French President Francois Hollande, analysts said the G8 summit has already diminished in both its size and effectiveness, and expected no major outcomes from this gathering.
G8 DOWNSIZES TO G7
First of all, the summit has diminished in its size, even though it will touch upon wide ranging issues, including eurozone crisis, Iran nuclear standoff, Syria, global energy and food security.
After Putin announced his absence, the event has literally shrunk from a G8 to a G7 summit.
Originally, the G8 and the NATO summits were planned to be held back to back in Chicago. But the White House later decided to separate the two, moving the former to Camp David in Maryland, a U.S. presidential retreat near Washington. Analysts said that the decision was meant to avoid the awkwardness when Putin has to leave while other leaders are still there for the NATO summit.
However, the considerate gesture by Americans failed to move the Russian leader who has usually been a hardliner toward the West. Last week, Putin told Obama by phone that he was not coming, due to his responsibility to form the cabinet.
The embarrassment, and even anger, were apparent for the White House, despite its insistence that Putin's absence was no "snub." Just days later, the administration announced that Obama will skip the APEC summit to be held by Russia in September, citing a conflicting schedule with the presidential campaign. Many observers interpreted the move as a tit-for-tat retaliation.
DIMINISHING EFFECTIVENESS
Secondly, and even more importantly, the G8 summit has diminished in its function and effectiveness.
The White House has been emphasizing that the Camp David summit is focused on pursuing the so-called "back to basics" agenda for the G8. In other words, it is designed to give leaders an intimate environment to discuss key problems and be able to take real actions.
Due to this reason, many media organizations have been denied access to Camp David, with the few exceptions for the press from the G8 members.
But such an explanation seems a bit far-stretching, as the NATO summit, where tangible results are expected, has been given all the highlights. Analysts suspected that a lack of results could be why the G8 summit occurs in such a low-key.
Indeed, with the absence of Putin, the summit can hardly achieve progress on issues like Iran and Syria, where Russia plays a major role. The Kremlin said Thursday that Russia will work to exclude Syria and Iran from the declaration of the upcoming G8 summit, which has virtually closed the door for progress on these issues.
The summit can also hardly make a big difference for the eurozone crisis, where Hollande favors a policy for economic growth, while Merkel stressed the necessity for austerity.
White House officials said that Obama, who shows more interests in the pro-growth policy, will use the behind-the-scene discussions during the summit to push the European leaders for consensus and actions.
However, given the enormous challenges the leaders are facing and the increasing concerns on the potential exit of Greece from the eurozone, it is quite unrealistic to expect the Europeans to make a choice between economic growth and fiscal discipline at Camp David.
"I don't expect major outcomes," Bruce Jones, expert with the Brookings Institution, told Xinhua.
"It's not the venue for that. I think the venue for that is in Europe itself," he said.
AN IRRELEVANT G8?
Under the current global order, the G8 has proved to be unable to tackle with the major economic and political challenges, with last year's summit in France being widely criticized as a "nightmare" and "making no sense." Analysts said the United States, even at one point, came very close to abandoning the G8 about a year and half ago.
Meanwhile, the emerging powers, including China, India, Brazil, and the others, are playing an increasingly crucial role in the international arena. As one example, the major forum for dealing with global economic challenges shifted from G8 to the Group of 20 (G20) years ago.
Describing the G8 as "outdated" and even "odd," Jones said: "It is hard for the G8 to figure out what its relevance is in the coming years."
