The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), citing the expected impact of recently announced U.S. tariffs. The adjustment was outlined in OPEC's monthly oil market report released on Monday.

In the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, oil demand has been revised downward and is now expected to increase by only around 40,000 bpd. Meanwhile, demand in non-OECD countries, also subject to a downward revision, is forecast to expand by almost 1.25 million bpd in 2025, the report said.

"Oil demand is forecast to be supported by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries," OPEC said.

The organization also lowered its outlook for 2026, again attributing the adjustment to the projected impact of new U.S. tariffs. Global oil demand next year is now expected to rise by approximately 1.3 million bpd year-on-year.

OPEC highlighted that the near-term trajectory of the global economy now faces greater uncertainty due to these tariff-related developments. As a result, the organization trimmed its global economic growth forecasts to 3 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent for 2026. Projections for U.S. economic growth were also reduced, to 2.1 percent for 2025 and 2.2 percent for 2026.

As for the eurozone, which continues to experience sluggish growth, the report slightly lowered its 2025 growth forecast. However, it noted that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures may help offset the negative effects of the tariffs.

Regarding China, the report acknowledged that the country could be more significantly impacted by trade disputes. Nonetheless, it said the Chinese economy has tools to mitigate the effects, such as domestic stimulus measures and further diversification of its export markets. 

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