World trade to expand by 9.5 percent in 2010: WTO
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World trade is set to rebound and grow at 9.5 percent in 2010 after suffering a sharp decline in 2009, according to figures released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday.
Exports from the developed economies are expected to increase by 7.5 percent in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the rest of the world, including developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States, should rise by around 11 percent as the world emerges from recession, the WTO said.
This strong expansion will help recover some, but by no means all, of the ground lost in 2009 when the global economic crisis sparked a 12.2-percent contraction in the volume of global trade -- the largest such decline since World War II, it said.
Should trade continue to expand at its current pace, it would take another year for trade volumes to surpass the pre-crisis peak level of 2008, it added.
The WTO also said there might be unexpectedly positive or negative economic developments in the coming months, which could necessitate a revision of the trade forecast.
"This projection assumes a resumption of global GDP growth in line with consensus estimates (2.9 percent at market exchange rates), as well as stability in oil prices and exchange rates," the WTO said in a statement.
According to the Geneva-based body, there remain significant risks that the forecast could be over-optimistic, including the possibility of further increases in oil prices, appreciation or depreciation of major currencies, and additional adverse developments in financial markets.
However, there is also a possibility that trade may outperform the forecast, for example if unemployment rates fall more quickly than expected in developed countries.
WTO Director-general Pascal Lamy warned that protectionism remained a risk for world trade in 2010 as long as the employment situation did not improve, especially in developed countries.
"The right thing to do is to keep opening trade," Lamy told a press conference.
WTO figures show that all countries and regions registered declines in the volume of their merchandise exports in 2009.
The United States and the European Union registered declines of 13.9 percent and 14.8 percent respectively. In Asia, Japan registered a decline as high as 24.9 percent. China also saw its exports decline, but slightly less than the world average.
In value terms, world merchandise exports fell 23 percent to 12. 15 trillion U.S. dollars in 2009, while world commercial services exports declined 13 percent to 3.31 trillion dollars. This marked the first time since 1983 that trade in commercial services declined year on year.
A number of factors contributed to the sharp decline in world trade in 2009, including the imposition of some of protectionist measures. But the primary cause was the fall in world demand, according to WTO economists.
