An employee displays a gold abacus in a gold jewellery shop in Jinan, capital of east China's Shandong Province. [Photo/Xinhua]

Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange briefly broke through the psychological threshold of 4,000 U.S. dollars per ounce on Monday evening local time, the first time in history.

International gold prices have extended their strong upward momentum since September. Spot gold has risen more than 50 percent so far this year, making it one of the best-performing major assets globally. Meanwhile, silver saw profit-taking after touching a 14-year high.

Market observers generally believe that the surge in gold prices reflects a combination of multiple factors: A weakening U.S. dollar and heightened fiscal uncertainty have significantly boosted gold's safe-haven appeal, while the ongoing partial U.S. government shutdown and delays in the release of key economic data have left markets without clear guidance on the economic outlook.

Bloomberg reported that U.S. Treasury market volatility has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years, prompting investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge against potential risks.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, coupled with hints of further easing later this year, has reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. Lower real interest rates and expectations of improved liquidity have together fueled gold's rally.

In addition, sustained central bank purchases and inflows into gold-backed ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) have played a crucial role in driving prices to record highs.

Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to 4,900 U.S. dollars per ounce from 4,300 dollars, citing strong demand from central banks and private sector diversification.

The bank expects global central bank gold purchases to average 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, with emerging-market central banks likely to continue increasing gold's share in their reserves to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut that investors should allocate "something like 15 percent of your portfolio in gold." Debt instruments are "not an effective storehold of wealth," he noted, while gold "is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down."

However, institutional opinions remain divided. Bank of America on Sunday urged investors to stay cautious as gold neared 4,000 dollars, warning that the metal might face "uptrend exhaustion" and could experience "a consolidation or correction" in the fourth quarter.

Industry experts said gold's record-setting rally reflects both rising global demand for safe-haven assets and declining confidence in U.S. dollar creditworthiness. Looking ahead, analysts said that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates further, the dollar continues to weaken, and geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices could remain strong.

However, as prices reach new highs, the risk of short-term corrections cannot be ignored. Several investment banks expect gold to fluctuate between 3,800 and 4,100 dollars per ounce through the end of the year.