Reuters:

In recent years, China's economy has generally performed well over the first half of the year, with momentum weakening in the second half. The economy posted strong growth in the fourth quarter of last year after fresh policy support was introduced at the end of September. How does the National Bureau of Statistics view the outlook for the second half of 2025? And are you planning additional support measures beyond those introduced in May?

Sheng Laiyun:

Thank you for your questions. Everyone is very interested in the trend of China's economy in the second half of the year. Recently, I have also been reading relevant materials and found that many international institutions and some investment banks have released reports on the outlook of the global economy. Most institutions predict that the global economy will slow in the second half, but the majority have, without prior consultation, raised their expectations for China's economic growth. This shows the confidence of international institutions and investment banks in China's economic development. Looking at the situation in the second half of the year, despite lingering uncertainties in the external environment and significant pressure from internal structural adjustments, we believe that China's economy will have the support to maintain stable growth in the second half of the year. 

First, the steady progress and achievements in economic growth in the first half of the year have laid a solid foundation for achieving the targets for the entire year. In the first half of the year, China's economy withstood pressure, maintained stable growth and showed a momentum of steady progress and positive performance, fully demonstrating its resilience and strong tenacity. As such, this development trend will continue. GDP growth in the first half of the year has already reached 5.3%, paving the way for accomplishing the expected targets.

Second, the trend and practice of high-quality development over the past several years has created a consensus, accumulated new momentum, promoted economic rebalancing and improved the ability of sustainable economic development. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, China has unswervingly advanced economic transformation and high-quality development, driving its economy to make historic achievements and undergo historic transformations. Our people have tasted the benefits of high-quality development. At present, the domestic and global situations are further pushing business entities to accelerate structural adjustments and transform development models, thus promoting economic transition and high-quality development. From the perspective of real-world factors, several leading indicators and positive elements are improving, indicating the sound momentum for high-quality development. In terms of production, after years of transformation, the service sector's contribution rate to economic growth has been rising. Among the three industries, the value added of the service sector accounted for 59.1% of GDP in the first half of the year, and its contribution rate to GDP growth exceeded 60%. Looking at leading indicators in recent months, the service sector climate index has remained consistently within the expansion range of 50% and above, demonstrating its sound momentum in development, and as a key industry with a large share in economic growth, it will continue to sustain this positive trajectory. From the perspective of demand, consumption serves as a "ballast stone" and the primary driver of economic growth. As I introduced earlier, the consumer market became increasingly active in the first half of the year. Driven by consumption policies in the second half of the year, it will continue to maintain a sound development trend, and its role as a "ballast stone" in supporting economic growth will continue to become more prominent. Concerning exports, we have pursued a diversified opening up strategy and built a multifaceted trade structure, with our trade dependence on any single country having dropped to a single-digit percentage. In the first half of the year, China's imports and exports grew by 2.9%, which was achieved amid significant external shocks in the second quarter, reflecting the resilience of our trade sector. Regarding the development of new drivers of growth, they continue to grow, with new industries as well as new forms and models of business maintaining relatively fast growth rates. Based on these factors, a comprehensive assessment shows that China's economy will have solid support for stable growth and high-quality development in the second half of the year.

Third, macroeconomic policies have worked in synergy to safeguard the stable operation of the economy. Since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive and effective macro policies, playing a role in underpinning the economy. According to the requirements of the central government, relevant departments have recently introduced policies for the second half of the year, which will continue to play a crucial role in supporting the economy's stable operation. At the same time, relevant departments have also stated that China has a sufficient policy toolbox and is also strengthening policy reserves, which will be introduced in a timely manner according to market changes.

Given these supporting factors, we believe that China's economy will maintain a stable and positive development trend in the second half of the year. This also explains why numerous international institutions and investment banks hold an optimistic outlook on China's economy. Thank you.